The new year is less than two weeks away. So:
<meta content="OpenOffice.org 1.9.129 (Linux)" name="GENERATOR"/><meta content="20051220;20440700" name="CREATED"/><meta content="16010101;0" name="CHANGED"/><br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <style><br /> <br /> </style><br /><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Search:</b></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><ul><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Google will lose market share to<br /> almost everyone but mainly A9.com, Alexa, Ask, Clusty, MSN and<br /> Yahoo. I would say that by the end of '06, Google's market share of<br /> pure search (done through Google.com) will be down at least 4%.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">In terms of stocks, I think Yahoo<br /> or Amazon are likely to outperform Google by a wide margin.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">After nearly an 18-month lull,<br /> I'll finally have some more ADR recommendations on<br /> <a href="http://www.adrinvestor.com/">www.adrinvestor.com</a></p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Google's stock price will be below<br /> its 2005 peak.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Alexa will change (almost<br /> completely) the dynamics of search.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">MSN Live could be a total flop</p><br /></li></ul><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Technology</b></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><ul><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Novell could start gaining some<br /> traction in sales of Linux as well as stock price; is likely to<br /> outperform Red Hat.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Sun Microsystems is likely to do<br /> well – in terms of stabilizing Unix sales, increasing storage<br /> sales and sales of Niagara.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">FireFox market share gain will<br /> stabilize around 15-18% globally from around 10% in December 05.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Windows Vista will be the biggest<br /> disaster in Microsoft's OS history. The operating system is too<br /> taxing on the hardware and hence machines bundled with Vista will be<br /> as expensive, if not more, than Mac X. My guess is that PC prices<br /> could be at least $100 more because of more memory and processing<br /> requirements.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Apple's Mac X will continue<br /> gaining market share and could easily top 5% of global shipment –<br /> partly because the machines will be very competitively priced<br /> compared with HP and Dell.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Linux will gain market share as<br /> well, this time at the expense of Vista. The price difference<br /> between a Vista PC and a PC installed with Linux will be at least<br /> $200. So, on desktops, the gains will come from more low end sales.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">HP will increase its share of PCs.<br /> </p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Acer will continue marching into<br /> Europe, Asia and even the U.S. at the expense of Dell.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Lenovo should do slightly better<br /> than the industry.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Dell would do slightly worse than<br /> the industry.</p><br /></li></ul><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Misc</b></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><ul><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">GM is likely to get closer to<br /> bankruptcy.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Hyundai and Toyota will continue<br /> to be the most exciting car companies.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Ford may announce some senior<br /> level management change – they will continue to flounder in the<br /> U.S. and Europe.</p><br /></li></ul><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Finance and Economics</b></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><ul><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="">Returns<br /> on </span>S – between 2% and 8%.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Emerging markets will outperform<br /> the U.S. and Europe.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Japan will outperform the U.S. –<br /> returning close to 20% returns</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Chinese stocks will do very well</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Emerging Market bonds five year<br /> streak should come to an end and will do poorly</p><br /></li></ul><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Publishing</b></p><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><ul><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Blogs will continue to gain<br /> popularity. Technorati, which currently searches 23 million blogs<br /> will have more than 35 million.</p><br /></li></ul><br /><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br/><br /></p><br /><ul><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Blogs will start consolidating<br /> i.e. there will be blogs that will have mass following.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> </li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Newspapers will continue to lose<br /> circulation; they will focus more on their Website to prevent<br /> readers switching to blogs – they will succeed in terms of higher<br /> Web viewer ship but fail in generating revenues.</p><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /> <p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"/><br /></li></ul><br /></p></div>
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